The other most evident factor is our ability to lose two-goal leads (or more). Tellingly, if we look at the full list we see that the first eighteen games were all one-goal leads. However since that fateful night at the Emirates versus Spurs in October 2008 where we somehow contrived to concede two goals in injury time to our deadliest rivals, this has become increasingly – and

Almost a year ago, I wrote this in the wake of our 3-2 home defeat to Tottenham. While everyone unanimously accepted that it did not make for kind reading in its own right, many said to me that it meant little without an equivalent comparison to the performance of our rivals over the same time period. I vowed to undertake this and get my research hat on to look at the likes of Manchester United and Chelsea.

Eleven-months later and with university finally out of the way, I have indeed done it. And along with assessing the aforementioned perennial title contenders Man Utd and Chelsea, I have also looked at two clubs who have challenged for the top-four positions in recent years: Liverpool and Tottenham.

As we are Gooners, first I’m going to focus on our Club (and in more detail than the rest). Whereas in my previous blog on the topic our figure was 34, it now stands at 42. Here is the list in full and it also shows the venue, the competition, the end result, the scoreline when we were winning followed by the final scoreline, and the lead we blew:

2005/06:

1. West Brom(a) – League – Loss – 1-0; 1-2 (one-goal lead)

2. Portsmouth(a) – League – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

3. Barcelona(n) – Europe – Loss – 1-0; 1-2 (one-goal)

2006/07:

4. Chelsea(a) – League – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

5. Chelsea(n) – Carling Cup – Loss – 1-0; 1-2 (one-goal)

6. PSV(h) – Europe – Drew on the night but lost on aggregate – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

7. Spurs(a) – League – Draw – 2-1; 2-2 (one-goal)

8. Chelsea(h) – League – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

2007/08:

9. Blackburn(a) – League – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

10. Sevilla(a) – Europe – Loss – 1-0; 1-3 (one-goal)

11. Newcastle(a) – League – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

12. Birmingham(h) – League – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

13. Birmingham(a) – League – Draw – 2-1; 2-2 (one-goal)

14. Chelsea(a) – League – Loss – 1-0; 1-2 (one-goal)

15. Liverpool(h) – Europe – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

16. Liverpool(a) – Europe – Loss – 2-2; 2-4 (essentially a one-goal lead, because we were going through on away goals)

17. Man Utd(a) – League – Loss – 1-0; 1-2 (one-goal)

2008/09:

18. Hull(h) – League – Loss – 1-0; 1-2 (one-goal)

19. Spurs(h) – League – Draw – 4-2; 4-4 (two-goals)

20. Middlesbrough(a) – League – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

21. Liverpool(h) – League – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

22. Villa(a) – League – Draw – 2-0; 2-2 (two-goals)

23. Chelsea(n) – FA Cup – Loss – 1-0; 1-2 (one-goal)

24. Liverpool(a) – League – Draw – 4-3; 4-4 (one-goal)

2009/10:

25. Man Utd(a) – League – Loss – 1-0; 1-2 (one-goal)

26. Alkmaar(a) – Europe – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

27. West Ham(a) – League – Draw – 2-0; 2-2 (two-goals)

28. Birmingham(a) – League – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

29. Barcelona(a) – Europe – Loss – 1-0; 1-4 (one-goal)

30. Wigan(a) – League – Loss – 2-0; 2-3 (two-goals)

31. Blackburn(a) – League – Loss – 1-0; 1-2 (one-goal)

2010/11:

32. Sunderland(a) – League – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

33. Shakhtar(a) – Europe – Loss – 1-0; 1-2 (one-goal)

34. Spurs(h) – League – Loss – 2-0; 2-3 (two-goals)

35. Wigan(a) – League – Draw – 2-1; 2-2 (one-goal)

36. Newcastle(a) – League – Draw – 4-0; 4-4 (four-goals)

37. Orient(a) – FA Cup – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

38. Barcelona(a) – Europe – Loss – 1-1; 1-3 (essentially a one-goal lead, because we were going through on aggregate)

39. Liverpool(h) – League – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

40. Spurs(a) – League – Draw – 3-1; 3-3 (two-goals)

2011/12:

41. Dortmund(a) – Europe – Draw – 1-0; 1-1 (one-goal)

42. Blackburn(a) – League – Loss – 2-1; 3-4 (one-goal)

That is the list in its purest form. The following gives a detailed breakdown:

Venue:

Home – 9 (21% of our 42 games)

Away – 30 (72%)

Neutral – 3 (7%)

Competition:

League – 29 (69%)

FA Cup – 2 (5%)

Carling Cup – 1 (2%)

Europe – 10 (24%)

End result:

Draw – 24 (57%)

Loss – 18 (43%)

Lead lost:

One-goal – 35 (83%)

Two-goal – 6 (15%)

Four-goal – 1 (2%)

Opposition:

Chelsea – 5 (12%)

Liverpool – 5 (12%)

Spurs – 4 (10%)

Barcelona – 3 (7%)

Birmingham – 3 (7%)

Blackburn – 3 (7%)

A few things strike me. Firstly, we have a penchant for throwing it away in big games. This is seen by the fact that we have lost leads in three matches taking place at neutral venues (i.e. finals or semi-finals). And when you look at the opposition who we have lost to, the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and Barcelona – clubs we can consider to be legitimate rivals – are at the top of the list. In addition, we do it at crucial times. In 2007/08 we led away to both Chelsea and Man Utd in the closing months of the season. We ended up losing both games. Had we held on to win both matches, we would have been crowned Champions.

It goes without saying that not every lead will be held on to, least of all against higher quality opposition. And there often tend to be extenuating circumstances, such as the Champions League final defeat to Barcelona in 2006 where we battled manfully for over an hour with ten-men and came within 15 minutes of reaching the Holy Grail.

The other most evident factor is our ability to lose two-goal leads (or more). Tellingly, if we look at the full list we see that the first eighteen games were all one-goal leads. However since that fateful night at the Emirates versus Spurs in October 2008 where we somehow contrived to concede two goals in injury time to our deadliest rivals, this has become increasingly – and worryingly – more prevalent.

The other thing – and this is purely from memory – is that a lot of our lost leads tend to occur very late on in games, making them even more soul-destroying. If we go by the thumb rule that no lead should turn into a defeat, that last-minute equalisers are the devil and that blowing a two-goal lead (or more) is a sin, I would say that 35 of the 42 games can be filed under “harrowing”. That is a big number.

Onto our rivals. I shall not list their results in full (you probably don’t want to read it) so here are their breakdowns, starting with Manchester United who have lost 31 leads over the same time period, eleven less than us:

Venue:

Home – 9 (29% of their 31 games)

Away – 21 (68%)

Neutral – 1 (3%)

Competition:

League – 22 (71%)

FA Cup – 1 (3%)

Carling Cup – 2 (6%)< br />
Europe – 6 (20%)

End result:

Draw – 20 (65%)

Loss – 11 (35%)

Lead lost:

One-goal – 28 (90%)

Two-goal – 3 (10%)

Opposition:

Chelsea – 4 (13%)

Everton – 3 (10%)

Arsenal – 2 (6%)

Bayern – 2 (6%)

Birmingham – 2 (6%)

Liverpool – 2 (6%)

Man City – 2 (6%)

We should not forget that Man Utd won the title in four out of the six seasons looked at, so they are very much the benchmark. And even the benchmark team goes to show that lost leads DO happen to everyone. In fact, Man Utd were very consistent in their performance, losing exactly five leads in almost every season. I personally take comfort in the fact that even the best team can suffer this fate.

Now we have Chelsea who, to my astonishment, have lost 41 leads – only one less than us:

Venue:

Home – 24 (59% of their 41 games)

Away – 16 (39%)

Neutral – 1 (2%)

Competition:

League – 26 (63%)

FA Cup – 2 (5%)

Carling Cup – 5 (13%)

Europe – 7 (17%)

Community Shield – 1 (2%)

End result:

Draw – 31 (76%)

Loss – 10 (24%)

Lead lost:

One-goal – 41 (100%)

Opposition:

Everton – 5 (13%)

Aston Villa – 5 (13%)

Spurs – 3 (7%)

Barcelona – 2 (5%)

Blackburn – 2 (5%)

Bolton – 2 (5%)

Charlton – 2 (5%)

Fulham – 2 (5%)

Man City – 2 (5%)

Newcastle – 2 (5%)

While Chelsea have a strikingly similar figure to ours, they go against the general trend by having more problems at home than in away games.

Furthermore, when comparing to us I find two things massively significant: 1) they tend to lose leads to all kinds of opposition, not just in the big games versus rivals; and 2) they NEVER gave up a lead of more than one-goal. I’ll touch on the latter point at the end, because I think it is very significant.

Onto a somewhat surprisingly solid Liverpool now, whose figure stands at 34, eight less than us:

Venue:

Home – 14 (41% of their 34 games)

Away – 20 (59%)

Neutral – 0

Competition:

League – 20 (59%)

FA Cup – 3 (9%)

Carling Cup – 0 (0%)

Europe – 11 (32%)

End result:

Draw – 20 (59%)

Loss – 14 (41%)

Lead lost:

One-goal – 33 (97%)

Two-goal – 1 (3%)

Opposition:

Arsenal – 4 (12%)

Chelsea – 4 (12%)

Wigan – 4 (12%)

Birmingham – 2 (6%)

Lyon – 2 (6%)

Spurs – 2 (6%)

Given that Liverpool’s title challenges have been as inconsistent as ours, I am shocked that they have a figure closer to Man Utd’s than they do to us.

Like Chelsea, Liverpool seem to be secure when two-goals up – aside from that crazy Champions League encounter versus Chelsea themselves a few years ago which ended 4-4. Lest we forget, however, that Liverpool were 3-1 down from the first-leg and had no option but to go out all guns blazing.

And finally we arrive at our local enemies, Tottenham, who have recorded a figure of 49 – seven more than us:

Venue:

Home – 19 (39% of their 49 games)

Away – 30 (61%)

Neutral – 0 (0%)

Competition:

League – 34 (70%)

FA Cup – 6 (12%)

Carling Cup – 2 (4%)

Europe – 7 (14%)

End result:

Draw – 31 (63%)

Loss – 18 (37%)

Lead lost:

One-goal – 41 (84%)

Two-goal – 8 (16%)

Opposition:

Arsenal – 5 (10%)

Man Utd – 5 (10%)

Birmingham – 3 (6%)

Blackburn – 3 (6%)

Chelsea – 3 (6%)

The thing that stands out for Spurs is that they are the only team remotely on a par with us when it comes two blowing two-goal leads, which probably reflects badly on us given that we are widely considered to be title challengers every year whereas they merely look to break into the top-four. Spurs experienced a crazy season in 2007/08 where they blew a massive EIGHTEEN leads – more than a third of their total in one-sixth of the time period.

So having discovered all of the above and stared at my spreadsheet for hours on end, what can we infer?

The main conclusion to draw is that lost leads are natural in football. They simply happen – moreso than we think – and even the most successful of teams can attest to this, e.g. Man Utd. A team goes 1-0 up, the opposition puts pressure on them and scores. End result: 1-1. Such is football.

From the above analyses, it is fair to say that Man Utd are the best at holding onto their leads. This comes as little surprise as they have been Champions in four out of the six years we’ve assessed. At the other end of the spectrum, Spurs are the worst. Again, nothing groundbreaking here given that they have only finished in the top-four once in that period.

In between is where the waters get muddied a little. If the results of Chelsea (two-time Champions and always challengers) and Liverpool (serial pretenders) were reversed, I could quite confidently claim the more leads you lose, the more likely you are to suffer overall.

However they are not reversed, and it is Chelsea who lose an unexpectedly high number of leads whereas Liverpool tend not to.

Then we must look deeper at the nature of the lead lost. In my opinion this comprises two factors – the lateness of the opponents’ equaliser or winner, and the size of the lead blown. While it has already been mentioned that Arsenal have become specialists in giving up late goals, off the top of my head I know Chelsea have too.

Focusing on the length of the lead is where things become interesting. Chelsea have never given up a two-goal lead over the six-and-a-bit years. Not a single one. Arsenal on the other hand have given up six two-goal leads and, most horrifically of all, a four-goal lead.

And this is where the nature of the leads lost alters our perception. As we’ve established, us and Chelsea have a similar figure. But when Chelsea go a goal up, how often do we hear commentators musing about their penchant to fold like a house of cards? Very rarely, if ever. On the contrary, is any Arsenal lead ever perceived to be safe these days? No. And with both clubs’ records being similar, what is the difference? It is the car-crash manner in which we lose leads. No other team can concede two goals in injury time to their closest geographical rivals to snatch a seemingly improbable draw from the jaws of victory. No other team can turn in a performance of the season in the first-half to lead 4-0, only to perform like a Sunday league team after the break and draw 4-4. No other team can score the “winner” in the 97th minute and somehow concede an equaliser in the 99th minute.

On the surface, the reality of the headline figure is that us and Chelsea are not dissimilar. The perception differs greatly. And this is proven when we scratch below the surface. Chelsea are seen as this solid, sometimes swashbuckling outfit. Arsenal are viewed as a decreasingly attractive yet increasingly fragile side. And this perception can be dangerous. When teams go a goal down to Chelsea, it most likely dents their confidence and they don’t truly believe they can salvage something out of the game, even though the statistics say it is eminently possible. Against Arsenal, going a goal down is never game over, because the opposition have the memory of all our horror shows fresh in their mind. It becomes common knowledge that Arsenal can be
got at and so they press even harder. And once they grab an equaliser, their confidence grows and they are sometimes even spurred on to grab a winner.

Not only does this perception encourage the opposition, but it also adversely affects us. In layman’s terms, we take a lead but we remain nervous; both the team and the supporters. These nerves transmit back and forth between the stands and the pitch, often resulting in yet another lead being frittered away. While I was writing this I conducted a poll on Twitter. I asked people that if Arsenal had lost 42 leads over the years, what did they guesstimate to be the figures for the Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs. I called it “perception research”.

Most of the respondents guessed that Man Utd and Chelsea’s figure stood between 20 and 30, Liverpool’s was close to ours, and Spurs more than us. Before conducting the research I was of a similar opinion. Never in my wildest dreams did I think Chelsea would have a figure close to ours, nor did I think that Liverpool would be so much more solid than us from winning positions. I even stated on Twitter that there was “no way” the likes of Man Utd or Chelsea could have a figure even remotely close to ours, boldly predicting that I would be surprised if their combined figure exceeded ours. How wrong I was.

I am glad I took the time to do this research. For the best part of a year I had been wantonly referring to The List every time we gave up another lead. Having looked at our rivals puts things in a different light – while we are not relatively as worse off in comparison to them as I had felt, there is doubtless room for improvement. Most notably, we MUST stop throwing away two-goal leads. Eliminating this will give both our players and fans confidence, while simultaneously not encouraging the oppositions’ players and fans. A positive double-whammy, if you will.

Squid Boy – http://twitter.com/#!/TheSquidBoyLike