Clearly this is the best scenario but also the most unrealistic. It has the benefit of keeping the squad together and this of course would be of great advantage. Both players are 24 years of age and reaching something close to their footballing potential. Losing them before they have reached this level would be a huge blow both to the club as a whole but also to Wenger’s ‘Project Youth’. What is the point of buying youngsters if they are to forever leave before they reach their best?

So here we are in the summer of 2011. The squad have embarked on a money-spinning tour to Asia where the hard work really begins. However, for Arsene Wenger the hard work began long before he climbed the steps on the plane to Malaysia. Barcelona are back once more to try and prise Cesc Fabregas away from our grasp and back to what they claim is his ‘righteous’ place. This is nothing new to Arsene. We seem to have had as many full-blown summer transfer sagas in recent years as Barca players confessing their undying love for Cesc. I could go into how pathetic their attempts at taking ‘El Capitan’ back to Spain have been but that would be going back on considerably well-trodden ground.

What we have this summer, however, is a dual saga at a very unwelcome time. “6 years without a trophy” the journalists consistently inform us. Yet, in one of the most important summer transfer windows I can remember we are seemingly more at risk of weakening our squad than improving it. The Samir Nasri contract situation is one that has certainly added intrigue to the window. Not the “I wonder what presents I’ll get on Christmas Day?” intrigue though. Far from it.

The way I see it, there are 5 possible scenarios that could play out this summer. I’ll go through the options, each more unfavourable than the last, trying to weigh up their pros and cons and make some logical sense of this mess we find ourselves in.

Option 1. Both Cesc and Nasri stay.

Clearly this is the best scenario but also the most unrealistic. It has the benefit of keeping the squad together and this of course would be of great advantage. Both players are 24 years of age and reaching something close to their footballing potential. Losing them before they have reached this level would be a huge blow both to the club as a whole but also to Wenger’s ‘Project Youth’. What is the point of buying youngsters if they are to forever leave before they reach their best?

Keeping both players would also mean the continuation of Theo van Nasregas, the fabled combination, whose different constituent parts complement each other so well. We all saw that when Walcott, van Persie, Nasri and Fabregas all played in the same team we were at our most dangerous during the season and that could well be enhanced this coming season with the long-awaited addition of Gervinho. This option would also mean a minimal change of personnel in the attacking portion of the squad, thus reducing the possibility of new signings needing time to bed-in. Having said all this it would be quite remarkable if both players were still in N5 come the 1st of September.

Option 2. Cesc stays and Nasri goes this summer.

If Barcelona don’t cough up the required cash there’s a distinct possibility Cesc will remain at Arsenal. We have the advantage of his contract not running out until 2015 so are in quite a strong position. If one was to stay I would prefer it to be Cesc for the simple reason that he is the better player in my opinion. This is not to say that I don’t rate Nasri, far from it. But I do feel that it would be much easier to replace him than Fabregas. This option has the disadvantage of strengthening a rival, who at this moment in time seem to be Manchester City. It would come with a fee though, likely to be in the region of £20-25m, which could be reinvested back into squad. Juan Mata of Valencia has been mentioned in the media as a possible replacement and would soften the blow of losing Nasri somewhat. Also, Nasri will be suspended for the first game of the next Champions League campaign. The joke’s on them right?!

Option 3. Cesc goes and Nasri stays signing a new deal in the process.

This option sees Cesc return to Barcelona and hopefully that will be the last of them until they inevitably return for Toral and Bellerin when they start to blossom in our first team. This scenario also sees us tying Nasri down to his desired 110k/wk deal. This at least guarantees a sell-on fee should he leave in a few years time unless we allow his contract to run down again! However, this is balanced out by the fact that the club’s wage structure would be broken and other players will see this as an opportunity to get a pay rise. I’m thinking especially of van Persie and Walcott who ominously both have 2 years remaining on their current deals. These need to be sorted as soon as possible if we’re to avoid another Nasri situation. After all, having your highest earner on 110k/wk isn’t the worst thing in the world in today’s market though is it?

Option 4. Cesc goes and Nasri stays but doesn’t sign a new contract.

Not a scenario I’m very comfortable with. The likelihood is that Nasri would leave at the end of the season and we wouldn’t receive a single penny. Some have said that silverware may sway him but could you see us realistically winning either the Carling or FA Cups and Nasri foregoing massive wage rises at either Manchester clubs, Chelsea or abroad to stay at Arsenal? It’s an incredibly risky strategy that I’m not sure Wenger would entertain. I would have hoped he’d have learned from the Flamini situation. In addition to this Nasri would require replacing at the end of the season probably at a similar fee to our reported valuation of him now. Why would we do the deal a season later, thus losing a potential £25m?

Option 5. Cesc and Nasri both go.

Welcome to the worst case scenario. Actually I lie. The worst case scenario would be losing both and Wenger announcing we’ll use current squad members to replace them. I don’t know about you, but as versatile as Eboue is, I’m pretty sure he’s not adept at playing the no.10 role! Losing one, as I’ve explained above would be pretty bad to varying degrees but to lose one of your two world class squad members (I class RVP as the other) and another player a category just below that level would be almost impossible to deal with in one window. I won’t spew the stats as we’ve all seen them (follow @OptaJoe and @Orbinho if you don’t already for more stats than you can shake a stick at) but simply put take out Cesc and we’re losing a hell of a lot of assists/goal-scoring opportunities and without Nasri an improving clinical edge in front of goal (despite his under par run-in).

Then there’s the issue of what message selling both Fabregas and Nasri sends to not only the fans but the remaining squad members and even prospective targets. Arsene himself said on arrival in Malaysia:

“The message that we give out is important. For example, you see about Fábregas leaving, Nasri leaving … if you give that message out, you cannot pretend you are a big club. Because a big club, first of all, holds on to its big players and gives a message out to all the other big clubs that they cannot come in and take away from you.”

Quite right too. Can you imagine the discussion between van Persie and Gazidis at the next contract negotiation? Robin is 28 this August and will want reassurances on the direction the club is heading before signing what could be his last big contract. Do you think he’s going to be quick to sign if Samir and Cesc have already trotted into the distance? Of course he isn’t and this is despite his genuine love of Arsenal. Ultimately he’s an ambitious footballer and wants to win things. The club needs to improve not regress. This will be impossible in the short-term should we lose both players this summer.

So, there are the myriad of options we (well, Arsene) is left with and it’s not pretty reading (and not just because of my writing style for which I apologise). If I was to guess, I would say Option 3 was the most likely to actually transpire. This would mean the end of Cesc’s stay at Arsenal and though I would be disappointed should he depart I would accept it. Yes, he’s done a few stupid things this season; the handball vs Spurs and the backheel vs Barca to name just two (sorry for dredging up those horrible memories). Despite this, nobody can deny his love for the club, and though some may debate this, I believe he’s given 100% in every game he has played for us (so far).

Whatever fate we are left in at the end of this summer one thing will remain constant: The fans. I just hope we have a competitive squad to cheer on come the end of the window.

You can follow me on twitter @hazzaboy21

Mean Lean’s Response

Nice stuff Hazzaboy, you have pretty much summed it all up in your piece and it has been a worrying time for Gooners around the world. I think it is safe to assume that Samir Nasri will be seeing out his contract with Arsenal. Wenger spoke last night about not selling the player but if that is the case then I am not so sure that will be his decision. Nasri holds all the aces here so even if Arsenal want to get rid, he just simply has to decline a move. I have the sneaky feeling that Real Madrid are lurking in the picture somewhere very quietly. His boyhood idol, Zinedine Zidane is now the director of football at Madrid and I really wouldn’t be all too surprised to see Nasri find his way to sunny Spain once we have won the Premier League this season.

I agree with you about Cesc being far more important than Nasri. His ability to create goalscoring opportunities is so important to a team that often has to face two banks for four outside of their penalty area. Judging by Arsene’s comments yesterday, it seems as if the decision is down to the player. Arsene has a lot of respect for his players and he wouldn’t want to keep someone against their wishes who have been so loyal and committed to the club for all this time.

Eboue as a number 10? Ha, that would be an interesting sight The pass master pulling the strings. I wouldn’t worry about that happening. If Cesc left the club then he would be replaced externally. Well you would certainly hope so. Aaron Ramsey is a lovely player but asking him to fill the boots of Fabregas over the course of a whole season would be risky at best.

All I care about is having a competitive side come to the close of the transfer window, all the rest has turned into a rather boring soap opera.